This is my full deck on ideas about the future of work as the fourth industrial revolution changes the economic and social landscape.
Full transcript of my interview with Lisa Morgan for her Information Week article.
Generally speaking, how aware of AI does the average C suite have to be these days and why? What should their attitude about it be?
The C-suite is becoming increasingly aware of the impact that AI will have on business processes, product development and, crucially, on HR. Big technology provides such as Microsoft, Google and IBM are pushing the AI agenda aggressively, and embedding AI across their applications; something that is catching the attention of CIOs and CTOs across the corporate world. The attitude of C-execs should be to add AI as a top strategic priority. This time technology will move faster than ever; and the laggards will pay a hefty price.
You hear the Doomsday hype and regardless of one’s view, it’s apparent that AI capabilities are expanding and so are the use cases. How might AI impact the C suite from organizational and management perspectives?
AI will have profound impact across the organisation. More specifically, it will impact three areas. First, business processes; by automating many tasks currently performed by humans. Secondly, on product and services development; by adding an element of intelligence and intuitive human/machine interactivity. Finally, on data insights; by managing the exponentially increasing deluge of data, particularly so in the emerging era of IoT (Internet of things)
From a competitive POV, how can AI distinguish a company and how much easier or difficult will be for the laggards to catch up?
As suggested in (2) above, first adopters will gain a quantum leap in competitive advantage by embracing AI. This technology will separate the companies with leaders who are quick to see and act on the opportunity – and succeed – and those who will fall helplessly behind. Unlike previous technological disruptions AI will not be a slowly accelerating ride. It will be like a spaceship switching to light speed overdrive. The laggards will be in danger of becoming irrelevant overnight.
We’re constantly hearing about men, machines, and where the lines should be drawn. Where are we now on the continuum of human assist, advisement, and automation/autonomy and how do you see that evolving in the near future?
There is a clear trend towards machines becoming more intelligent so that humans can work more intelligently with them. Although machines will increasingly gain more autonomy, they will do so within the human space and within human norms and ethics. Whether they are robots working alongside us on the assembly line, or intelligent interfaces which carry out the most tedious cognitive tasks, machine intelligence will be our most trusted colleague in the future.
More organizations are using machine learning to solve problems faster and at scale. Some are innovators, some are consumers, some are both. At what point does it become obvious that AI is impacting or will impact the corporate culture?
Corporate culture is essentially about behaviour; or how employees conduct themselves while aligning with the company’s goals. The successful companies of the future will be the ones that encourage innovation and the empowerment of their people. This is because the most positive, and most disruptive, impact of AI will be the empowerment of humans to be more productive and more creative. Savvy corporate leaders get that and are ready to shift gears towards more employee empowerment, more organisation agility, and more data-driven management.
What are the characteristics of companies that are in a better position to gain a strategic advantage of AI and what are the characteristics of companies who are likely to fall short of their own expectations?
Companies that have embarked on rethinking their business models in a more digital fashion are the ones who are better prepared for the 4th Industrial revolution. AI takes digital transformation to another level, so naturally those companies that are already investing on innovation and digital are better positioned to adopt AI.
How will AI affect the workforce? Which types of roles are more likely to benefit from AI assistance/advisement and which roles are more likely to become obsolete, given that AI is constantly becoming more sophisticated and helping bona fide experts?
AI will have a major impact on the workforce, particularly white-collar workers. It is estimated that 60% of jobs will have 30% of their tasks automated (McKinsey research). The impact will be most severe on entry level jobs, challenging how young graduates will enter the labour market (Willis Towers Watson research). The current trend of companies becoming leaner by shedding full-time employees and replacing them with contractors using digital talent platforms will persist. In the future, most working people will be working as contractors using digital platforms to get work and AI to support them; this will give more opportunity for a better work/life balance, but will also make our working lives less secure.
How does and how will AI affect the decision-making process?
By providing better data insights and predictive analytics (as alluded in 2), AI will significantly enhance decision-making and transform management into a more data-driven process but also one that is more creative.
Is there any advice you’d like to offer or best practices you’d like to mention that you haven’t yet talked about?
Identify opportunities in the three impact areas of AI (products and services; business processes; data insights) and start upping your game.
In October 2015, and in relative secrecy, a major milestone in Artificial Intelligence was reached. AlphaGo, an algorithm developed by Google to play the game Go, beat Fan Hui, the Go champion of Europe, by five games to zero. The results, as well as an insight to the algorithm, were published in the scientific journal Nature early this year.
There are several reasons why Google’s achievement is significant. First, it’s the huge degree of complexity of the problem they tackled. The game of Go is played by two players on a 19×19 grid board, the goal being to gain as much territory as possible by moving and capturing black and white stones. The average 150-move game contains more possible configurations that there are atoms in the universe (10 followed by 170 zeros, to be exact). This so called “search-space” is simply intractable for conventional computing approaches.
So the second significant reason for paying attention to what Google did – or rather DeepMind which is Google’s AI company – was their approach to solving the search space problem of Go. They expanded on techniques that they had already developed, and which helped them win in the 49 arcades games early last year. And they put those techniques on steroids using a combination of deep neural networks, supervised learning, and reinforcement learning. They started out by training their networks to mimic the moves of human players using 30 million positions from games played by human experts. Machine learning is all about applying the mathematics of probability theory to track how closely a computer can “guess” the correct output when given a certain input. Training – or “supervised learning” as it is technically called – entails the computer analyzing massive data sets and building a probability function that describes relationships between them. It then applies this function to any new data set. Once supervised learning was complete the scientists at DeepMind let the algorithm play against itself across 50 computers. This “reinforced” its ability for pattern recognition, improving its game with each iteration. Finally, they added a search approach with the ability to pick moves and interpret Go board, thus furnishing AlphaGo with the ability to rank the strategies that were most likely to succeed at any given move. The result was a program that is scales of magnitude better as playing Go than any other computer program before it, and better than an expert human too. As a follow up test of AlphaGo’s ability, a match between it and South Korean Lee Sedol, the world’s most titled player, is scheduled for March 2016.
The achievement of AlhpaGo was heralded in Nature, and other media outlets, as the first sign of “machine intuition”. If this is true, then it makes DeepMind’s technological breakthrough all the more significant. By intuition we usually mean that uniquely human “eureka moments”, when a true statement reveals itself to us not through logical reasoning but out of nowhere. Intuition is fundamental to the sciences and arts, and has been studied by historians, psychologists and philosophers. It seems that all big human discoveries have been made by intuition. The experience of intuition is that, because it is not the result of a sequence of logical steps, one can never explain how that eureka idea came to them. It is only by hindsight that scientists will go back and work out the mathematics and the logic behind a great, intuitive idea. So does AlphaGo match this human capability? And if so to what degree?
Let’s compare AlphaGo with Deep Blue, the other artificial intelligence computer that made the news back in 1997, when it beat at chess the world’s chess champion, Gary Kasparov. The big difference was that Deep Blue’s program was handcrafted. In other words, it was possible to go back to the source code and trace why Deep Blue made the moves that it did, or why it followed a certain strategy . Its behavior was rational, in the sense that humans could query the machine and get an explanation of its reasoning. AlphaGo is a completely different technological beast. It uses “deep neural networks” which is a metaphor for computer systems that self-organize through experience and learning, rather than process data through hardcoded facts and descriptions. Because of self-organisation these systems are very efficient in identifying patterns in complex data. Indeed it this capability of deep neural networks that makes them such an exciting technology. When the decision-making task is challenging, the search space intractable, and the optimal solution complex, deep neural networks are the answer. The problem is that <em>the answer</em> that the neural network will deliver cannot be queried, but has to be trusted and believed.
Having to place blind trust on a machine’s judgement is something completely new for human civilization. It is a challenge of enormous ethical, political and moral dimensions. Take for example medical diagnosis. Many years ago I had built an expert system for medical diagnosis that used a handcrafted approach, similar to Deep Blue. A fundamental requirement for the acceptability of that expert system in any real medical environment was that the system ought to give an explanation of its diagnosis. Human doctors need to explain why they think a patients suffers from a certain disease. A diagnostic system based on deep neural networks will probably be a lot better that any expert system or any human doctor could ever be. It will deliver the best and most accurate of diagnoses, but it could not explain the reason why. The experience of communicating with such a machine would be similar to communicating with an oracle: “truth” would appear to come from nowhere.
Perhaps the success of deep neural networks in years to come will be so spectacular that we humans will adjust to simply trusting their judgment, unquestionably. But what an irony would that be! For science and technology, the twin siblings of rational thought and the scientific method, will have given birth to something that resembles blind faith and religion. If deep neural networks are the future, then the future will look strangely like the past.